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His formula · his names
ChartsLector Opportunity Score
What is this?
Why. A second opinion from ChartsLector's Opportunity Score, which ranks his watchlist of liquid tech and AI names that have 2X leveraged ETFs.
How. Score = 0.40 × Breakout + 0.35 × Expansion + 0.25 × Risk, the average of his four horizons (10, 20, 42 and 63 sessions) with his own weights. Relative strength and volatility parts are percentiles against the desk's whole 1,838-stock roster, as his are against a broad US list. Breakout, Expansion and Risk are not published; the desk fits them to his posted tables (in later sessions it was not fitted to, its order agreed with his at a rank correlation of 0.88). Daily closes only.
Conviction 8 order · context
Lens ranking
What is this?
Why. How many independent lenses agree on a name, on an eight-category conviction design. It is context and does not change the Buy List.
How. Conviction 8 scores eight categories from the desk's own data: relative strength, price action, participation, trend alignment, support and resistance, sector leadership, positioning and market context. A category is confirmed (✓) when at least half of its inputs score 60 or more; the score is the weighted mean of the categories with enough data. The board and watching names are shown, highest first.
Any stock on the list
Look up
What is this?
Why. The desk's read of any stock on the desk's roster, not only the Buy List.
How. Type a ticker for its take, plan and evidence, read from the latest daily bars.
The market today
Market read
What is this?
Why. The market's backdrop in one look: whether conditions favour buying setups.
How. The badge counts four trend checks: the S&P 500 against its 50-day average, the share of stocks above their 50-day averages, volatility against the past year, and offensive sectors against the S&P 500. Three or four passing reads Risk-on, two Mixed, one or none Risk-off. It is a trend read, not today's move; during the session it uses today's live prices.
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Leaders and laggards
Sector strength
What is this?
Why. Which sectors lead and which lag, so setups can be weighed by their group.
How. Each sector ETF's relative strength against the S&P 500, strongest first.
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Every call, losers included
The record
One square per call
Every call
What is this?
Why. Every call the desk has made, one square each, so the record cannot be cherry-picked.
How. A call opens when a name is listed and is written down before the outcome. Colours: won, lost, open, waiting, missed or ended.
Closed calls, newest first
Results in R
What is this?
Why. How much each closed call made or lost, in units of its own risk.
How. R = the result divided by the planned risk (entry to stop). +1R made what was risked; -1R lost it.
Open calls
Time left
What is this?
Why. How long each open call has left before its plan expires.
How. Each bar runs from the listing to the plan's time limit; today is marked.
The numbers
Track record
What is this?
Why. The desk's track record in numbers.
How. Hit rate, mean result in R and counts across all closed calls, scored by the record's fixed rules: fills only at the buy range or better, exits at the stop, target or time limit.
Every listed setup becomes a call, written down before the outcome and scored here.
The method
How it works
- Read everything. After each close the desk reads every stock on its list the same way: the trend and its averages, the levels where buyers and sellers stepped in before, momentum and its divergences, volume, volatility, candles and gaps, chart patterns, Wyckoff events and the Elliott wave count, the fund each stock follows, the market, and its own strategies.
- One plan. From those levels it builds one plan: where to buy, the daily close that proves it wrong, where to take profit, and by when. A stock that is falling gets a plan that buys only once it turns.
- Conviction and the desk’s take. Each kind of evidence (the trend, the levels, momentum, volume, the wave count and so on) casts one vote, however many readings it has. Conviction counts how many kinds clearly agree, net (at least half a vote each, less any clearly against): High at four, Solid at three. The desk’s take adds what the evidence does not hold: support stacked at the buy, the fund it follows, earnings inside the hold.
- The strip. Above the Buy List, five reads of the session. SPY gamma: the dealers' net gamma per 1% move from the option chain, under the usual convention that dealers are long the calls and short the puts (open interest does not say who holds it); Dampening when it is positive, Amplifying when negative, the word changing only after two reads agree, with the flip (where it changes sign) and the largest put and call walls. Range: the VIX's one-day expected move (VIX ÷ 15.87) and how much of it the clock has funded. Day: Pin, Grind or Volatile from the gamma, the gap and the range so far, logged and graded each session. Fear: Calm under 15, Normal to 18.5, Stressed above, against a forecast of realized volatility; a fear day is the Buy List's own rule: SPY down 1% or more on the day, under its 50-day average, or a volatility spike. SPX / NQ: whether SPY and QQQ agree today.
- The Fear-Day Buy List. When the market has a fear day inside a bull market, the desk lists names in three lanes: uptrend pullbacks, deep resets and a micro and nano lane. Each card gives its reasons, the vetoes that apply, and a plan: buy at the next open, hold about 60 sessions, a disaster stop as a level, and a weight that risks the same on every name. The market gate sits on top: under a Risk-off badge a buy reads as a smaller size or as a watch, never as a plain buy.
- The record. Every call the desk lists, including those from its earlier board, is written down before the outcome and scored as a reader could trade it, losers included: a buy that waits for a daily close fills at the next session’s open, and a daily close below the out line sells at the next open.
The wave method, in seven drawings
The words the page uses
- Buy zone
- The price range where the plan buys. Its top is the cap: the plan never chases above it.
- Out
- The daily close that proves the plan wrong. It sits under the level the plan rests on, outside a normal day’s noise.
- Target
- Where the plan takes profit: just under the next level where sellers stepped in before or, with none overhead, where the last advance projects.
- Fibonacci extension
- Where a move tends to run, measured from the last swing: the advance repeated from its pullback low, or 1.272, 1.618 (a wave 3’s usual reach) or 2 to 2.618 times it. A pullback’s own 1.272 and 1.618 extensions are where a break of its high first runs.
- Trim
- Selling part of a position and holding the rest. A wave plan sells a fifth at its first target, the old high, and holds the rest for wave 3’s reach: the first ceiling is a trim, never the whole.
- Reward to risk
- What the plan can make for each unit it risks. At 2 to 1, it breaks even if it works one time in three.
- Horizon
- If the plan works, the time a move that size typically takes for this stock.
- Support and resistance
- Prices where buyers (support) or sellers (resistance) stepped in before. Different kinds at one price make a stronger level.
- Pullback and breakout
- A pullback buys a dip back to support; a breakout buys a daily close above resistance.
- ATR
- Average true range: a stock’s typical daily move. Plans set their lines in ATR, so a calm stock and a wild one are judged alike.
- Divergence
- Price and momentum disagreeing at two swings. Hidden bullish divergence (a higher low in price, a lower low in momentum) often means an uptrend resumes.
- Elliott wave
- Trends tend to move in five waves before a larger correction. The desk uses the count to say where a stock sits in its trend and which price proves the count wrong.
- Wave 4
- After waves 1 to 3 up, the pullback that usually ends between the 0.382 and 0.5 retracement of wave 3, above the top of wave 1. A daily close up inside the zone is the buy; a close under the wave-1 high ends the count.
- Wave 2 and the reaction
- After five clean waves up, the pullback usually ends between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement of the advance, in three waves, on lighter volume. The zone is where to watch; a daily close up inside it is the buy. Under the start of wave 1 the count is wrong.
- Fear day
- A session the stock and the fund it follows (QQQ for tech, SPY for the rest) both close red. The desk’s fear-day rule buys long setups on such a day.
- Conviction
- High, Solid or Speculative: how many kinds of evidence clearly agree behind the plan, net, each kind counted once: High at four, Solid at three.
- The desk’s take
- Strong, For, Leaning or Against: the desk’s judgment, recorded before the outcome so it can be scored.